It is one of the most common questions in Canadian real estate right now, and one of the most honest answers is that it depends heavily on where you are buying, why you are buying, and what your time horizon looks like. The national picture heading into 2026 is genuinely mixed: some markets are presenting buyer conditions not seen in years, while others are still working through significant inventory overhangs. For anyone asking if now is a good time to buy a condo in Canada, the data-backed answer requires looking at the full picture rather than a single headline.
Where the Condo Market Stands in 2026
The national average selling price for a condo in Canada declined approximately 5.8 percent year-over-year to $469,300 in February 2026, according to CREA data. The national sales-to-new-listings ratio sits at roughly 48 percent, technically balanced, but that national figure masks significant regional divergence. Ontario and British Columbia are firmly in buyer's market territory, while the Prairies, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada tell a different story entirely.
In Ontario, benchmark prices are down 7.0 percent year-over-year as of January 2026. In British Columbia, they are down 4.9 percent. Meanwhile, Quebec prices are up 7.1 percent year-over-year, Saskatchewan up 5.6 percent, and Atlantic markets continue to post gains. The question of whether I should buy a condo in 2026 has very different answers depending on which province you are in.
Toronto and Vancouver: A Buyer's Window Is Open
In Canada's two most expensive and most-watched condo markets, conditions currently favour buyers more than they have at any point since before the pandemic. The GTA had 5.8 months of supply as of January 2026, firmly in buyer's market territory. Re/Max estimates the GTA is still working through close to two years of condo inventory. Average condo prices in Greater Toronto have declined 15 to 20 percent from their Q3 2023 peak. In Greater Vancouver, condo sales fell 22.9 percent year-over-year in January 2026, with prices down roughly 5 percent annually.
For buyers who have been priced out of these markets for years, that correction represents a genuine entry opportunity. Units that were simply unaffordable at peak pricing are now accessible, negotiating room exists that was unthinkable in 2021 and 2022, and conditions such as financing clauses and status certificate reviews routinely waived during the frenzy are standard again.
Prairie and Quebec Markets: Different Dynamics
In Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Montreal, and Quebec City, the oversupply story does not apply. These markets have tighter inventory, stronger population growth relative to supply, and more balanced or even seller-leaning conditions in certain segments. Buyers in these cities face less negotiating leverage, but also far less price risk. Markets that did not spike as dramatically during the pandemic have not corrected as severely either.
The Case for Buying Now
The argument for acting on condo market timing in Canada in 2026 rests on several converging factors that are unlikely to persist indefinitely.
Prices Are Down from Peak
In Ontario and BC, condo prices are meaningfully below where they were two years ago. The Real Estate Institute of Canada notes that average monthly mortgage payments on a benchmark Toronto condo are projected to fall in 2026 for the first time since 2020, a combination of lower prices and the Bank of Canada's rate-cutting cycle, which has brought the policy rate to 2.75 percent as of early 2026. Affordability in these markets, while still stretched, is improving.
The Supply Cliff Is Coming
One of the most compelling arguments for buying now rather than waiting is what is happening, or more accurately, not happening in condo construction. New condo starts in Toronto fell to their lowest level since the 1990s in 2025. CMHC projects national housing starts will decline further through 2026 to 2028 as developers contend with elevated costs and softer demand. After record completions in 2025, the pipeline drops sharply from 2026 onward. Once the current inventory surplus is absorbed, a process that Re/Max and TD Economics both project will unfold gradually through 2026 and into 2027, the lack of new supply will restore pricing power to sellers. Buyers who wait for that inflection point will be competing in a different market.
Pent-Up Demand Is Building
RBC Economics projects a 7.9 percent rebound in national home resales in 2026, driven by first-time buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines. TD Economics notes there is likely significant pent-up demand in the GTA specifically, with first-time buyers expected to lead the recovery, particularly in the $400,000 to $600,000 price range. As that demand activates alongside a shrinking supply pipeline, the window of buyer-favourable conditions will narrow.
The Case for Waiting
Intellectual honesty about whether I should buy a condo in 2026 requires acknowledging the real risks that argue for patience in certain situations.
Prices May Not Have Bottomed in Toronto and Vancouver
RBC Economics projects continued price declines in Ontario and BC into early 2026 before stabilizing, and True North Mortgage forecasts condos nationally will drop a further 2.5 percent through Q4 2026. Buyers who purchase now in Toronto or Vancouver may see their unit's value decline modestly before the market finds its floor. For buyers with a five-plus year time horizon, this is largely noise. For buyers who may need to sell within two to three years, it is a real consideration.
Economic Uncertainty Remains a Factor
Trade war uncertainty, a fragile labour market, and reduced immigration targets are all headwinds that are keeping buyer confidence subdued and could delay the recovery timeline. A Bank of Canada survey found that 25 percent of Canadians were less likely to make a major purchase given trade tensions. If economic conditions deteriorate more than forecast, the timeline to recovery extends further.
How to Think About Timing
The truth about condo market timing in Canada is that no one consistently picks the exact bottom of a market, and waiting for perfect conditions often means missing the best entry window. The more useful framework for most buyers is this: if you are buying a unit you can comfortably afford at current rates, in a location you want to live, with a time horizon of five years or more, the current conditions in most Canadian markets are as favourable as they have been in years. The combination of lower prices, improved inventory selection, genuine negotiating room, and a construction pipeline that is rapidly drying up creates a set of conditions that buyers in 2020 and 2021 would have found remarkable.
The buyers most at risk are those stretching their finances to the limit at current prices in markets that have not fully corrected, or those buying investment properties in buildings dominated by small studio units where the demand fundamentals remain weak. Choose the right unit in the right building for the right reasons, and the question of whether it is now a good time to buy a condo in Canada answers itself fairly clearly.
